The Aftermath of a Helicopter Crash That Killed the President of Iran
Introducing our H2H contributor on the ground inside Iran, bringing us exclusive insights into life behind the state controlled headlines. For security reasons, they are filing as 'Marcus Paolo'.
In January 2023, I published a piece I’d been asked to write for Politico Magazine, The Women of Iran Are Not Backing Down. I learned it was live via what was then still called Twitter - a tweet from Richard Branson. Before I knew it, this essay had gone viral, eclipsing anything I’d ever done at the BBC - including that time we got Hillary Clinton to speak live to an Afghan girl hiding from the Taliban in a safe house for my Women Building Peace series. The spirit of the women of Iran had struck a nerve around the world.
And Iranian officials knew it. When I looked the now late President of the Islamic Republic of Iran Ebrahim Raisi in the eyes, they were dark and robotic. By contrast, his predecessor Hassan Rouhani gave an illusion of warmth, even if his smile quickly dissipated when I asked why his government used dual nationals as negotiating chips, throwing journalists in jail under false accusations of espionage. Raisi answered my question ‘why not just give Iranian women what they want?’ with the same regime lines I’d heard from my other sources: Iranian women enjoy freedom, what about America being a hypocrite censoring TikTok and oppressing minorities, the law is the law and women have to abide by compulsory hijab - or hair covering.
And yet they won’t admit they’ve lost this battle and might as well concede, as seen in this video sent to me from the streets of the capital Tehran: a woman with her hair blowing in the wind on the back of a motorcycle with a man.
This reality doesn’t often make its way out of the country and into our news feeds amid a crackdown on information, with few foreign journalists on the ground. Those who are there, are heavily surveilled and controlled to only show supporters of the Islamic Republic.
We’re grateful to have this kind of insight from ‘Marcus’ into a country whose policies impact not just the Middle East region, but increasingly the globe - something we warned about in our Out of the Shadows documentary. There’s a caveat to these dispatches: they have very clearly from someone who does not support the regime. H2H as a platform is committed to showing all sides of a story and doing so does not reflect the personal views of any member of our core editorial team.
Journalism is not activism, activism is not journalism. A journalist’s job is to tell all sides of a story accurately and fairly, even the one’s the journalist doesn’t personally like.
With that being said, we hope you find these unfiltered reports enlightening.
DISPATCH FROM ‘MARCUS PAOLO’
2024 has been anything but dull in the Iranian socio-political-economic sphere. Every time I leave Iran, even for a short one-week business trip abroad, something seems to happen.
Last time, Iran and Israel were on the brink of starting World War III. This time, as I was sitting at a pub, my friend from Tehran texted me, “Raisi is f****d.” I thought to myself, well, that was random. Sure, the parliamentary elections didn’t go his way, and the economy in Iran sucks, but it sucks everywhere. Instead of going to a reliable news source like the BBC, CNN, or NBC, I went to Instagram. Within minutes, there it was, in Farsi: “Raisi’s helicopter made a hard landing.” So I texted my friend back, “Yeah, he’s f****d.”
Then my other buddy showed up, and I said, “Bro, we need to do shots.” He asked why, and I replied, “The ‘Butcher of Tehran’ just crashed into a mountain. Ironic that a rock caused his death after he stoned so many innocent women to death himself.” My friend said, “No, no, no, Russian news is saying he’s on his way to Tabriz.” I told him, that’s fake. He’s toast. And we bet on it—a shot of whiskey! About an hour or so went by, and I was chatting with my friends back in Iran. Everyone was saying he’s gone. The thing is, whenever a helicopter or plane goes down, or someone “drowns” in Iran, and it’s a high-profile figure, they’re gone. That’s just the way it is. I was getting bombarded by my friends in the US. Some gave condolences, some asked what now, and others asked who did this. Do you think it was Israel? Was it internal? Usually, when a president dies, chaos ensues. But the Iranian President is merely a figurehead. They rubber stamp whatever the Supreme Leader dictates. My initial two guesses were Israel or an internal job. But it was late, and there was fun to be had with friends I hadn’t seen in a while.
I woke up in the morning, having consumed far too many shots, to instantly look on Instagram again, and there you have it. Confirmed by various outlets, including BBC Persian, and now every mainstream media outlet. The “Butcher of Tehran,” aka President Raisi, had died in a horrific fireball crash in northwest Iran. Some even argued he was alive for at least 90 minutes while sizzling. Either way, he was gone. Now come the questions of who did it, how did it happen, what happens next, etc.
The boring part is, per the constitution of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the first vice-president would become interim president for fifty days. At that point, regime supporters would vote for another president. Why do I say regime supporters? Because Raisi was elected with the lowest turnout in the 45 year history of the Islamic Republic, and some argue that the parliamentary elections held just a few months ago had lower than 5% turnout.
Now the question is, who did it? If anyone tells you they know, they’re lying. Iranians have a tendency to believe just about every conspiracy theory thrown at them. If you think QAnon people are easily manipulated, then come to Iran, Habibi. And they also have a tendency of being 100% right about everything. Don’t try to argue. You’re wasting your breath.
Did Israel do it? Pure speculation on my part is that there is perhaps a 10% chance. There’s no doubt Mossad has infiltrated Iran. They’ve taken out nuclear scientists inside the country and IRGC commanders abroad. Mossad’s reach is deep enough to warrant that speculation.
Was it an accident? Given the Bell 212 helicopter was a Vietnam-era design, yeah, sure. I guess that’s possible too. US sanctions have prevented Iranian avionics from updating their fleet. I give that a 5% chance.
What I’m willing to absolutely bet on if I had money on the line is either the IRGC had to take him out, or the Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei. Or a combination of both.
Why the IRGC? It’s simple. Raisi has absolutely destroyed Iran’s economy during his very short tenure. The Iranian Rial has pretty much collapsed versus foreign currencies. Inflation is anywhere between 70% and infinity percent. A kilo of meat costs roughly $20 in a country where a teacher makes around $200-$250 a month. Corruption is insanely high, even by third-world standards. If you want to get out of a traffic ticket, a handout is much appreciated. If you want a court-ordered eviction to not be six months away but an hour, well, here you go, officer. You want a building permit? Let’s just build a forty-story building alongside another one inside a street built for horse carriages, sitting over one of the world’s biggest fault lines. If I were to give Iran a moniker, it’s “Come to Iran, everything is possible.” While the IRGC is a menace abroad, they are pure capitalists inside Iran. And President Raisi was hurting their bottom line.
Next, we have the current Supreme Leader’s son, Mojtaba. While hereditary rule isn’t forbidden in Iran, it’s very much frowned upon, since that was one of the reasons the Ayatollahs used to overthrow the last King. Having said that, Mojtaba Khamenei and President Raisi were viewed as the most likely successors to the current 84-year-old, cancer-stricken Supreme Leader.
It’s a conspiracy theory, but not entirely far-fetched if you ask me.
I’m sitting here in Tehran now, and everyone is asking, what’s next? My taxi driver from the airport home didn’t mince his thoughts. Mojtaba killed Raisi, and it’s not inconceivable that he’d even kill his father. When I asked my taxi driver what happens when the Supreme Leader dies, he said if Iranians don’t take back this country when “the ultimate killer” dies, then we deserve our suffering. I said, well, there have been enough chances, and nothing happened. His response was, “They” don’t want leadership to change. By “they,” he was referring to Great Britain, the United States, and even Israel.
What’s next for the Iranian Presidency, or the abbreviation that almost sounds French, POTIROI? The system will probably deny any reformist from being a candidate in the late June election. Regardless, it’ll probably be another rubber-stamp mullah taking orders. What could be interesting is if the Supreme Leader passes during this interim period. The absolute power vacuum might be too enticing for everyone to try and get their hands on something.
We’re in the final innings of the Islamic Republic as we know it. We might go into extra innings because nothing is ever predictable in this part of the world. But stay tuned.