This morning I woke up to a text from Tehran: “Look, we were never fans of the Islamic Republic. But Trump drew the line so badly that now all Iranians — regime and everyone else — are basically on the same side against this madman.”

Meanwhile to the East across the Iranian-Pakistani border, New York Times reports: “An American delegation led by Vice President JD Vance met with senior Iranian negotiators on Saturday afternoon in Pakistan, officials from Iran and the White House said. It was a historic encounter between decades-old adversaries as they sought to broker peace after more than a month of war.

As night fell in Islamabad, few details about the status of talks had been released. But the length of the talks, which Iranian state media and a White House official said were continuing, suggested the two sides remained engaged and still had topics to discuss.”

But does JD Vance know who exactly he’s dealing with?

Rouzy Vafaei fled Iran last month after several days’ detention at the hands of the Islamic Republic’s security forces. He is an American - Iranian dual national whose first hand recent experience living under this regime gives us valuable insight into who it is the Vice President is negotiating with.

He writes:

President Trump’s unpredictability is his greatest personal strength when facing an adversary like the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The reason for that is because the rulers of Iran are equally unpredictable. They manipulated the Iranian people to overthrow the Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi in 1979. And they have continued to be an unpredictable group ever since.

They used American hostages for their own benefit and have long since made a mockery of every American president since then. The reason for that is every President of the United States acted “presidential.” As we have seen with the Trump Presidencies, Donald Trump is anything but that.

Fast forward to April 10, 2026; the date the Trump administration had set for negotiations in Pakistan.

His two envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were set to fly across the world with Vice-President JD Vance. The Islamic Republic’s envoys, headed by Majlis (Parliament) speaker Mohammad Qalibaf, flew to neighboring Islamabad with the Speaker’s two new demands in order to even start negotiating a permanent agreement.

First, the regime’s money needs to be unfrozen by the United States before negotiations can start.

Second, Lebanon must be part of a negotiated settlement; in that Israel will cease attacking the terrorist group, Hezbollah.

This isn’t the first time, regime negotiators have thrown a last minute curveball. They famously did it during the Obama Administration’s Iran nuclear deal. And to the dismay of the Iranian people, it worked.

President Obama was a conventional, predictable US president that desperately wanted a deal. President Trump, on the other hand is by and large the most unconventional US president we have seen, and is far from predictable.

At times, it’s my opinion his staff don’t even know what he will do.

While the Islamic Republic’s negotiators outmaneuvered previous administrations, it is my opinion this will not work with President Trump. As he said, the Islamic regime doesn’t hold any cards.

And with all American military assets maintaining their defensive positions in the region, bombs can potentially start flying towards remaining regime targets with a flick of switch.

As in poker, you can have a great hand, but if your opponent is unpredictable, they will make the mistake of overplaying that hand.

I believe, the Islamic Republic is doing just that.

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Iranian presidents rarely speak in the language of fatigue. They speak of endurance, resistance, sacrifice. To admit exhaustion in the middle of active unrest is to admit that the state is reacting, not directing. It is an acknowledgment that pressure is no longer contained at the margins.

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